How to use the 'Basic Strategy" when betting on two-team NFL teasers
A basic strategy to play NFL two-team teasers. Plus, a busy Tuesday of sports gambling headlines to recap right here in VSiN City.
Sports betting: How to use the "Basic Strategy" for two-team NFL teasers
The two-team six point teaser is one of the most popular options for betting on pro football. These are familiar terms to long-time punters. A two-team six point teaser, which is an easy way to bet on sports, allows you to move the line SIX times in your favor on both teams. However, you must cover these new spreads to win your bet.
You could make a move to bring down a pair of 10-point favorites by moving them both down to -4 for a two-teamer if you see them as a pair. To win the bet, BOTH must win by at least five points.
Easy, right? They aren't called "teasers", but that's because they're so easy to use! They are called "teasers" as they trick you into making bad decisions. Even with six bonus points per play, it's much harder than most people realize to sweep two plays. These six points will not be enough to make this a long-term profitable strategy. Many bettors make poor decisions due to the psychology of betting.
Casual bettors prefer to place their bets on favorites as they feel more comfortable supporting the superior team. These bettors feel even more comfortable putting favorites in teasers. "Those 10-point favorites will KILL the underdogs!" They can both be mine at -4...LOCK CITY!" Big favorites rarely win by large margins. As you have probably heard from VSiN's experts in oddsmaking, the lines often favor the public. One-sided betting is not allowed by sportsbooks. If you see a 10-point favorite in football, the "true line" is likely to be -9 or -9.5... and the spread was raised to allow for a premium when betting on the favorite. This is important for teasers because you aren't really getting six points with the adjustment. If you are talking about larger favorites, you might get 5.5 or 5.
Casual bettors love asking the "better team" to win the game. This means that most people LOVE taking favorites at -6 and moving them down for pick-em. It sounds easy. This is the NFL. You may be surprised at how many times underdogs in this range win. It's easy enough to forget the need to SWEEP both teasers entries. If you like betting lots of action, it may be a problem to include the same team in multiple teasers. If there is an upset, all those bets are lost. There is often some price inflation in this range. At true odds, a 6-point favorite will likely be a 5-point favorite. The line adjustment doesn't give you the full value.
Most new or casual bettors focus on these two strategies. Trying to get all your favorites down to make it "safer" for you to take them. Also, asking favorites to win at a TD or less because better teams are supposed win. It's almost certain that someone who has never been to a betting site will be excited about using teasers this weekend. "I can't lay 10 with that team, but it's going to be a pleasure to lay 4 points with them."
Since teasers were first introduced, Quants has done research on them. The first was by hand and then the computer. These studies taught us the following:
Teasers are a loser on college football totals or sides.
NFL Totals: Teasers are a loser
Teasers can be too crazy to use in college basketball or pro basketball.
With a few exceptions, teasers are a losing proposition for NFL teams.
What are the exceptions? The exceptions? Teaser nominees who crossed BOTH the 3 AND 7 numbers was an incredibly profitable strategy.
Favorites reduced from -7.5 to -1.5
Take favorites from -8 to -2
Favorites reduced from -8.5 to -2.5
Take underdogs from plus 1.5 to plus 7.5
Take underdogs from plus 2 to plus 8.
Take underdogs from plus 2.5 to plus 8.5
You can increase your chances of winning if you only use teams that fit these parameters and make use of all possible two-teamers. This "basic strategy" has been used by Sharps for these price ranges for many decades.
Why isn't -7 lowered to -1? Many games end right at the seven. Pushes lose. How about -9 to -3? The same goes for the three: you need to SEEP both parts of your teaser in order to cash. The NFL's most popular final results are the three and seven. Focus on the options that place both in the adjustment window.
That would be the week we are going to be thinking about:
New England -8.5 to -2.5 (many shops are at -9 which does not qualify)
Buffalo: -8.5 to -2.5 (that also has been rising).
Detroit plus 1.5 up to plus 7.5
Oakland plus 1.5, 2 or more up to plus 7.5% or plus 8.
Pittsburgh: -8.5 to -2.5 (though it can be -9 in many places).
Notice how the word "considering” was used. WEEK 1 teasers are a problem because the market prices for this season are very soft. Many teams in the league are still uncertain. Kansas City will catch New England after the Super Bowl and play a nailbiter. Is it really that bad for the Browns and Jets? What happens to Oakland this season?
One of the paradoxes of NFL betting involves the confident team side and totals wagertors attacking soft lines early in a season...then it becomes more difficult for them later in a season when the lines better match the on-the-field realities. For TEASERS, six points is more valuable than the 7. Crossing the 3 and 7 adds value. This weekend will see some sharp teaser betting action. Two months from now, those same sharps will be much more aggressive in pairing up the options and placing big bets on that type of slate.
Next, you have to face the reality that you just looked at that list. And you think "Oh my God! I love the idea that New England and Pittsburgh could be taken at -2.5!" Are Detroit and Oakland really underdogs? "I don't trust dogs as often."
It's up to you what you do. Moving dogs from the plus 1.5 to 2.5 range to plus 7.5 or 8.5 is a great strategy, especially as you attack vulnerable favorites (not strong enough to be favored with a field goal or other type of goal). You also get line inflation (you probably get 6.5 to 7 point in terms true odds when you move number on underdogs). A solid line of -2.5 is available in the NFL. This means sharps didn't immediately place a bet on the game to increase their odds to -3. A disrespected favorite paired with a well-respected dog at plus 8.5 is a good thing to have in your portfolio, thanks to the power and flexibility of the 3.
You'll find other options than six-point teasers and two-team betting in a sportsbook. You can also move seven points while paying extra juice. The popularity of 10-point teasers with three teams was once high. The math doesn’t support any "basic strategy" other than what we discussed with the two-teamers. (More advanced methods that incorporate matchup dynamics may zero in on certain options, but even then, it would be more beneficial to take the team at its normal cost than to use it as a teaser.
This is why we wanted to share it with you. It's likely to be common for Chris Andrews, Jimmy Vaccaro and Vinny Maulo to discuss the effects of teasers on online moves this weekend and beyond. This is already a huge topic in New England, Buffalo, Pittsburgh. All the dangers that sportsbooks face must be balanced. What happens if Kansas City receives a lot of sharp money? Should the books lower the limit to 8.5? This would invite a million teaser plays this weekend that start with New England -2.5.
Even if you don’t place bet teasers on the NFL season, the impact they have on the overall market is something you need to be aware of.
NHL: Westgate reports a point total over/under for the 2017-18 season
There is so much to do before it's over. Here's a quick look at the Westgate "total point" openers, which were posted on Tuesday afternoon in preparation for the NHL regular-season that starts on October 4.
Metropolitan Division: Pittsburgh 104.5; Washington 103.5; Columbus 96.5; NY Rangers 95.5; New Jersey 94.5; Carolina 93.5. Philadelphia 91.5. NY Islanders 88.5
Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay 102.5 and Montreal 100.5, Toronto 94.5 and Toronto 94.5, Boston 92.5 and Ottawa 92.5, Buffalo 97.5, Florida 85.5, Detroit 78.5
Central Division: Chicago 99.5, Nashville 98.5, Dallas 98.5, Minnesota 96.5, St. Louis 95.5, Winnipeg 92.5, Colorado 69.5
Pacific Division: Anaheim 106.5; Edmonton 103.5; San Jose 96.5; Calgary 95.5 and LA Kings 89.5. Arizona 74.5, Vancouver 72.5. Vegas 68.5
Potpourri: Tuesday's headlines are just getting better!
Let's get started with some quick hits...
After Leslie Alexander's sale, Tilman Fertitta, the Golden Nugget owner, will become the Houston Rockets' new owner. The word is out that you won't be able bet on Rockets games at Golden Nugget.
The league's appeals process formally upheld Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension of six games. The NFL has announced that Elliott will play Sunday against the New York Giants, despite Elliott's request for a temporary restraining or against the ruling. The following prediction was made by Gill Alexander on Twitter Tuesday night:
"The NFL is all-in. The NFLPA is all-in. Zeke loses appeal, but he plays the whole 2017 season. Start of 2018 suspended It's now down
Dallas is still at -4 against NYG on Sunday night. Elliot is now guaranteed to play. Odell Beckham is doubtful for the G-men.
As of Tuesday night, there was no word on where the scheduled NFL game between Tampa Bay Bucs & Miami Dolphins would be played. It won't be played in Miami on Sunday (where Miami would have been lifted from plus 2.5 to plus 8.5). It's not possible to move it to a later day as that could disrupt evacuation efforts. There are two options: play in another NFL city on Sunday or take a bye this week to play the game in Miami, which was coincidentally the original bye week for both the teams.
According to the New York Times, the Boston Red Sox confessed to Major League Baseball that they were stealing signs using a process that involved Apple watches. According to the article, the Yankees turned the Red Sox in and the scheme was ongoing for several weeks. There is no information on the date "several" began. Conspiracy theorists point to a 22-21 record that entered a homestand against the Texas Rangers on May 23. Boston won the first 90 games, then went on to win 54-36 before New York's trip exposed the electronic subterfuge. The Red Sox were 1-3 in New York last week, and aren't expected to win two more games at Fenway Park this week.
Enjoy this hilarious take on The Ringer for 90 seconds.
Tennis has some big news. A US woman will be guaranteed a place in the US Open Finals. Sloane Stephens and Venus Williams both reached the quarterfinals on Tuesday. In Friday's semifinals, they will be facing off. The semifinalists will be decided Wednesday when Karolina Pikova (-175) takes on Coco Vandeweghe, (plus 150, all lines from Bookmaker.eu), and Madison Keys is up against Kaia Kanepi (40%). The Betfair exchange had the following prices overnight to win the event. Pliskova plus 295, Williams plus 290 Keys plus 360 Keys plus 360 Stephens plus 490 Stephens plus 490 Stephens plus 490 Vandeweghe plus 860 Kanepi plus 53400 Basic Groundwork to a Love of Sports Wagering